926 River Basin Ct #101

Bradenton, FL 34212

$317,500D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · Built 2002 · Condo · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,665
• Tax + insurance: −$529
• HOA: −$778
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-947/mo
• Annual: $-11,363/yr
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.78%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $88,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $318k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-947 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (43.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freedom Elementary School (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 574 students, 42% FRL); Carlos E. Haile Middle School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 737 students, 45% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.5% in Bradenton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?