603 63rd Ave W Unit E19

Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$3,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 350 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20
• Tax + insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $912/mo
• Annual: $10,942/yr
• Cap rate: 286.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 1002.03%
• DSCR: 45.58
• 1% rule: 30.47%
• Cash to close: $1,092

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $4k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $4k).
• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $117 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 286.9% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.