Goldwin Plan

Spanish Springs, NV 89441

$603,995F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 478 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,433/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,038
• Tax + insurance: −$1,283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,141
• Net cashflow: $-1,029/mo
• Annual: $-12,352/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $215,599

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $604k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $543k (10.1% below list).
• It's been on market 478 days — a 12% lower offer ($532k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $532k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#35 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Washoe County School District (urban): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 17 in NV (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,085 units permitted in Washoe County in 2024 (1,634 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washoe County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Spanish Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 478 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.