2214 Nightgrove Cir

Crandall, TX 75114

$219,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$690
• HOA: −$55
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-257/mo
• Annual: $-3,086/yr
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.03%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (5.4% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Noble Reed (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 595 students, 74% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 41% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?