711 N Water St

Ellensburg, WA 98926

$279,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 957 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,409/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-645/mo
• Annual: $-7,737/yr
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.90%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-645 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (40.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (49.5% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (49.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#64 in WA, #1,157 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Ellensburg School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #148 of 291 in WA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 302 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 94% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 433 units permitted in Kittitas County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kittitas County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.8% in Ellensburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.