2450 Bluestone Rd

Lake Hamilton, FL 33844

$262,990D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax + insurance: −$438
• HOA: −$51
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-459/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $73,637

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-459/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#591 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.