Cali Plan

Graniteville, SC 29829

$291,140D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 303 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,527
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-293/mo
• Annual: $-3,511/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $81,519

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $291k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#240 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Byrd Elementary (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #369 of 597 statewide, top 64%, 657 students, 37% FRL); Leavelle Mccampbell Middle (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #162 of 229 statewide, top 71%, 650 students, 55% FRL); Midland Valley High (math 31% / reading 83%, grade C, #120 of 196 statewide, top 64%, 1,477 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.