30 Chestnut Hill Rd

Killingworth, CT 06419

$340,000C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 399 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $554/mo
• Annual: $6,643/yr
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.98%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $340k).
• It's been on market 399 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 17 (rural): math 55% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #29 of 153 in CT (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $340k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 399 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.