7680 Private Road 2576

Union Valley, TX 75474

$309,999D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,656 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,691/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$427
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-717/mo
• Annual: $-8,602/yr
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.91%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-717 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (40.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (45.4% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,287 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL); C B Thompson Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 628 students, 77% FRL); Wh Ford H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 786 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.6% in Union Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.