405 Granbury Ct

Granbury, TX 76049

$290,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,124 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,191/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $650/mo
• Annual: $7,800/yr
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.61%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $650 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Woods School (math 67% / reading 64%, grade B+, #234 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 626 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Granbury ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.