32914 Willow Bay

Wildomar, CA 92595

$710,000C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,408 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,752/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,723
• Tax + insurance: −$713
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,628
• Net cashflow: $1,688/mo
• Annual: $20,253/yr
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.19%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $198,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $710k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $710k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#951 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wildomar Elementary (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #610 of 1,571 statewide, top 39%, 577 students, 82% FRL); David A. Brown Middle (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #155 of 498 statewide, top 31%, 990 students, 74% FRL); Elsinore High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #332 of 1,170 statewide, top 30%, 2,122 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 141% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $275k; list at $710k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.3% in Wildomar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,752/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 429% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.