4 Bay St

Center Moriches, NY 11934

$1,499,000B-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,432 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,861
• Tax + insurance: −$3,040
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $4,899/mo
• Annual: $58,790/yr
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.32%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $419,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($59k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.50M).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.45M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.45M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#641 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Center Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #188 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Clayton Huey Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 598 students, 28% FRL); Center Moriches Middle School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 325 students, 29% FRL); Center Moriches High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 556 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.15M; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 1.9% in Center Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.