2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,086 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,031/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$275
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$426
Net cashflow
$464/mo
Annual
$5,569/yr
Cap rate
9.67%
Cash-on-cash
12.05%
DSCR
1.54
1% rule
1.23%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#75 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
Artesia Public Schools (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 95 in NM (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Artesia Zia Intermediate (546 students, 50% FRL); Artesia High (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #27 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 766 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Artesia Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Ceiling fan
— Ceiling fan is present but may need cleaning
Minor: Lighting
— Ceiling fan has light but may need replacement
CashFlowRE · CFR-ME1P2VES4B5QMK
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29