2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
950 sqft ·
Built —
· Condo
· Active
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,392/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,203
Tax + insurance
−$700
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$712
Net cashflow
$-223/mo
Annual
$-2,675/yr
Cap rate
5.66%
Cash-on-cash
-2.27%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$117,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $420k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $388k (7.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (19.2% below list).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $339k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $355k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,392/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 4771% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ME5MN97D14ZHY9
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29