4122 Bougainvillea St

Pine Air, FL 33406

$325,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,914/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$601
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-40/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-40/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (10.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $291k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#270 in FL, #4,410 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Berkshire Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 1,046 students, 70% FRL); John I. Leonard High School (math 17% / reading 35%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 3,549 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 99 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $325k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,914/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 768% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.