10951 N 91st Ave #222

Peoria, AZ 85345

$150,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,805 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $738/mo
• Annual: $8,862/yr
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.10%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 333 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.