10810 Ottawa Trl

Breezy Point, MN 56472

$439,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,784 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-1,575/mo
• Annual: $-18,904/yr
• Cap rate: 2.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.35%
• DSCR: 0.32
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $123,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (63.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (67.8% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (67.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#330 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pequot Lakes Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #137 of 301 in MN (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $440k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 0.9% in Breezy Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.