205 Essex Dr

New York, NY 10314

$968,000D-

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · Built 2001 · MultiFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,076
• Tax + insurance: −$1,123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,477
• Net cashflow: $-642/mo
• Annual: $-7,701/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $271,040

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $968k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-642 ($-8k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-321/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $855k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $704k (27.3% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($953k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $704k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,035/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 2168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.