15934 Colonial Bridge Ln

Houston, TX 77073

$197,500C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,058/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,036
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $76/mo
• Annual: $908/yr
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $55,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($908/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $198k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $26 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewis Middle (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 1,090 students, 94% FRL); Nimitz H S (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,385 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 2,772 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 159 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.