535 Hillcrest Cir

Justin, TX 76247

$350,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$704
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-546/mo
• Annual: $-6,548/yr
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.68%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-546 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#443 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1503 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Justin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.