4 bd · 3.5 ba ·
2,612 sqft ·
Built 2012
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 140 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,942/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,303
Tax + insurance
−$814
HOA
−$216
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$828
Net cashflow
$-1,219/mo
Annual
$-14,626/yr
Cap rate
3.97%
Cash-on-cash
-8.29%
DSCR
0.63
1% rule
0.63%
Cash to close
$176,372
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $630k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $415k (34.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $394k (37.4% below list).
It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($554k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $394k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#135 in FL, #2,039 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Everglades Elementary (math 70% / reading 74%, grade A-, #288 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 888 students, 34% FRL); Emerald Cove Middle School (math 61% / reading 64%, grade B+, #116 of 571 statewide, top 21%, 1,241 students, 36% FRL); Palm Beach Central High School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #198 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 2,980 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 574 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $320k; list at $630k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,942/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 1870% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MHDJVR9AY49Y13
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29