3213 Old River Rd

Henderson, KY 47715

$58,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,052/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $36/mo
• Annual: $437/yr
• Cap rate: 15.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.21%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $16,240

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($437/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#114 in KY, #4,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 301 in IN (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caze Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #837 of 994 statewide, top 86%, 393 students, 79% FRL); Mcgary Middle School (math 8% / reading 15%, grade F, #311 of 330 statewide, top 94%, 351 students, 81% FRL); William Henry Harrison High School (math 29% / reading 54%, grade F, #211 of 369 statewide, top 58%, 1,158 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 50% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 508 units permitted in Vanderburgh County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.