429 Sheoah Blvd #12

Winter Springs, FL 32708

$180,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,187 sqft · Built 1978 · Condo · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,033/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$452
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,037/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (8.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#261 in FL, #4,187 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Winter Springs Elementary School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 553 students, 79% FRL); South Seminole Middle School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 995 students, 69% FRL); Winter Springs High School (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,038 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 38% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Winter Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?