229 Osage Ct

Lexington-Fayette, KY 40509

$139,900B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1971 · Townhouse · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,884/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$92
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $429/mo
• Annual: $5,154/yr
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.16%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Madeline M Breckinridge Elem School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 509 students, 78% FRL); Crawford Middle School (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #197 of 217 statewide, top 92%, 751 students, 68% FRL); Henry Clay High School (math 43% / reading 49%, grade D-, #20 of 254 statewide, top 8%, 2,031 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.