12427 Columba Way

Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$460,990D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,417
• Tax + insurance: −$592
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-841/mo
• Annual: $-10,089/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $129,077

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $461k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-841 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (40.4% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($433k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $275k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.