3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,086 sqft ·
Built 1971
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 123 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,245/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$304
Tax + insurance
−$152
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$261
Net cashflow
$527/mo
Annual
$6,323/yr
Cap rate
18.34%
Cash-on-cash
43.04%
DSCR
2.92
1% rule
2.15%
Cash to close
$16,240
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($401 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $50k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MKAJGSF98VWNFR
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29