3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,255 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Pending
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,102/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$813
Tax + insurance
−$338
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$232
Net cashflow
$-280/mo
Annual
$-3,363/yr
Cap rate
4.12%
Cash-on-cash
-7.75%
DSCR
0.66
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$43,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (31.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (28.9% below list).
Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $105k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $206 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-866 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#944 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Alto ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #484 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Alto Middle (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 167 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 67% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MKBEFEAGS25BSR
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29