517 Acorn Hill Rd

Shokan, NY 12461

$109,500B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$574
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $1,518/mo
• Annual: $18,212/yr
• Cap rate: 22.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.40%
• DSCR: 3.64
• 1% rule: 2.59%
• Cash to close: $30,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($757 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $110k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.