4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,258 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Other
· Pending
· 87 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,446/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,027
Tax + insurance
−$151
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$304
Net cashflow
$-37/mo
Annual
$-439/yr
Cap rate
6.07%
Cash-on-cash
-0.80%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$54,852
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $196k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-439/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (3.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (26.2% below list).
It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#587 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Edgecombe County Public Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #163 of 178 in NC (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: G W Carver Elementary (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #825 of 1,410 statewide, top 59%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Edgecombe Middle (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #388 of 475 statewide, top 83%, 305 students, 99% FRL); Southwest Edgecombe High (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 802 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Edgecombe County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Edgecombe County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $18k; list at $196k implies a 988% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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