46 Packards Rd Unit 101- Week 01

Waterville Valley, NH 03215

$936C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1967 · Condo · Active · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,504/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5
• Tax + insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$92
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $1,880/mo
• Annual: $22,557/yr
• Cap rate: 2416.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 8607.01%
• DSCR: 383.96
• 1% rule: 267.53%
• Cash to close: $262

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $936.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $936).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($823) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $823 (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $65 of equity ($6 loan paydown + $59 appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waterville Valley School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #98 of 171 in NH (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $500; list at $936 implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $262 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.