2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
740 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 264 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$931/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$466
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$195
Net cashflow
$7/mo
Annual
$90/yr
Cap rate
16.72%
Cash-on-cash
37.23%
DSCR
2.66
1% rule
1.86%
Cash to close
$13,989
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($90/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($931 rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $1k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $900 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#695 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Breckenridge ISD (town): math 36% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #551 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: East El (404 students, 78% FRL); Breckenridge J H (math 38% / reading 31%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 300 students, 71% FRL); Breckenridge H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 424 students, 58% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Stephens County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.7% in Breckenridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MM9J9QDZQTKW6H
· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29