386 Mill Rd

Westhampton, NY 11977

$1,175,000A

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,162
• Tax + insurance: −$835
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,979
• Net cashflow: $7,970/mo
• Annual: $95,644/yr
• Cap rate: 14.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.07%
• DSCR: 2.29
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $329,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.18M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($96k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.18M).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.07M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $112k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $104k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#969 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Westhampton Beach Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #81 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $470k; list at $1.18M implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $329k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$179k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 9.1% in Westhampton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $18,946/mo this rent would consume 150% of the median local household income ($151k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.