605 E Main St

Newbern, TN 38059

$70,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,638 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,320/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $557/mo
• Annual: $6,687/yr
• Cap rate: 15.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.12%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $557 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#75 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dyer County (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #16 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Dyer County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dyer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $70k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.9% in Newbern — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.