2165 Griffin Rd

Macon-Bibb County, GA 31216

$105,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,374 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 389 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,549/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $560/mo
• Annual: $6,718/yr
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.85%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heard Elementary School (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #663 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 541 students, 100% FRL); Rutland Middle School (math 12% / reading 28%, grade F, #349 of 470 statewide, top 75%, 812 students, 100% FRL); Rutland High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #394 of 424 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 5.9% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: siding — Weathered and chipped
• Moderate: paint — Chipped and peeling
• Major: flooring — Worn and in need of replacement