5717 Shaw Dr

Bartonsville, MD 21704

$449,900D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-497/mo
• Annual: $-5,968/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (36.4% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#335 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oakdale Elementary (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #92 of 860 statewide, top 11%, 1,028 students, 16% FRL); Oakdale Middle (math 24% / reading 58%, grade F, #20 of 225 statewide, top 10%, 1,057 students, 11% FRL); Oakdale High (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #15 of 222 statewide, top 6%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Frederick County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $450k implies a 449% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.