3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,560 sqft ·
Built 1986
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 159 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,484/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$332
HOA
−$11
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$312
Net cashflow
$-141/mo
Annual
$-1,696/yr
Cap rate
5.38%
Cash-on-cash
-3.27%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (13.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (19.8% below list).
It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $148k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MP0TP40GJR9R8F
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29