302 Mountberry Ct

Walnut Grove, GA 30052

$300,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,601 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,401/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-703/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-703/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#289 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Walton County (rural): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #31 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Youth Middle School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #140 of 470 statewide, top 30%, 1,236 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove High School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #49 of 424 statewide, top 11%, 1,450 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 847 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 677 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walton County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.9% in Walnut Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.