10144 Circle West

Kerrtown, PA 16335

$39,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,094/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$330
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $261/mo
• Annual: $3,132/yr
• Cap rate: 14.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.31%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 2.77%
• Cash to close: $11,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#593 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Crawford Central SD (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #367 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: paint peeling — Peeling paint on interior walls
• Moderate: window frames — Some windows appear old and may need replacement