5715 Santa Cruz #37

Atascadero, CA 93422

$179,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,037 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 233 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $1,175/mo
• Annual: $14,098/yr
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.13%
• DSCR: 2.25
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#369 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, amenities F.
• Atascadero Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #508 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.1% in Atascadero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.