3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,244 sqft ·
Built 1936
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 98 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,392/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$252
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$292
Net cashflow
$-175/mo
Annual
$-2,105/yr
Cap rate
5.21%
Cash-on-cash
-3.86%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (15.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (28.6% below list).
It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $139k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#99 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Garibaldi Elementary School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #288 of 412 statewide, top 73%, 120 students, 52% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie Middle School (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #41 of 128 statewide, top 32%, 177 students, 44% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 280 students, 35% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MQEJ311EPGXPAD
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29