3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
902 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 104 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$986/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$105
Tax + insurance
−$45
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$207
Net cashflow
$629/mo
Annual
$7,548/yr
Cap rate
44.03%
Cash-on-cash
134.78%
DSCR
7.00
1% rule
4.93%
Cash to close
$5,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($986 rent vs $20k).
It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $738 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $600 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#896 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
Mclean ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #297 of 1,141 in TX (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MQHPSMAX7N1JCT
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29