16021 SE 170th Ave

Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32195

$290,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · Built 1985 · MultiFamily · Active · 284 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$418
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $764/mo
• Annual: $9,165/yr
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.29%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stanton-Weirsdale Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 544 students, 70% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $290k implies a 1724% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.2% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.