1424 Cross Bow Ln

Spring Hill, FL 34607

$135,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,318/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$220
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-201/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-201/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (2.4% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (2.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 53% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 523 students, 76% FRL); Fox Chapel Middle School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 69% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.