3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,493 sqft ·
Built 2002
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$9,496/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,956
Tax + insurance
−$1,575
HOA
−$33
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,994
Net cashflow
$938/mo
Annual
$11,256/yr
Cap rate
7.48%
Cash-on-cash
4.25%
DSCR
1.19
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$264,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $945k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $938 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $945k).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
In year one you build about $101k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $94k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#177 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $470k; list at $945k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $265k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$162k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $9,496/mo this rent would consume 138% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MS6QRF70SB773J
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29