336 Williams

Sierra Blanca, TX 79851

$69,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,227/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $474/mo
• Annual: $5,685/yr
• Cap rate: 14.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.05%
• DSCR: 2.29
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#1,655 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Blanca ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,106 of 1,141 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP.
• Hudspeth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.