811 30th St

Union City, NJ 07087

$1,490,000C

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,814
• Tax + insurance: −$2,483
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,989
• Net cashflow: $949/mo
• Annual: $11,383/yr
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $417,200

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $1.49M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $949 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.42M (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.47M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.42M (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $159k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $149k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 226 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $417k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$256k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $14,235/mo this rent would consume 266% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 6042% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.