607 Moran St

Gainesville, TX 76240

$127,500B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $618/mo
• Annual: $7,421/yr
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.79%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $35,700

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $882 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#602 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gainesville ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #606 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edison El (683 students, 81% FRL); Gainesville J H (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 426 students, 71% FRL); Gainesville H S (math 42% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 863 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 190 units permitted in Cooke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.6% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.