1 Jackson Dr

Cragsmoor, NY 12428

$269,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 872 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,525/yr
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,038 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ellenville Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #534 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellenville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 674 students, 61% FRL); Ellenville Junior/Senior High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 731 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ellenville Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $269k implies a 1181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.