Bradford Plan

Shelbyville, KY 40065

$291,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 1004 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,655
• Tax + insurance: −$526
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-446/mo
• Annual: $-5,356/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.06%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $88,381

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#101 in KY, #4,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wright Elementary (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #388 of 676 statewide, top 58%, 457 students, 53% FRL); Shelby County East Middle School (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #98 of 217 statewide, top 45%, 552 students, 47% FRL); Shelby County High School (math 24% / reading 36%, grade F, #122 of 254 statewide, top 49%, 994 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.