477 Lory Ln

Grovetown, GA 30813

$285,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,143 sqft · Built 2015 · Other · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,352/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-232/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-232/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#57 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in Grovetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.